Last week Brent crude closed at $116.72 a barrel, its highest since late April. Fuel prices at the pump didn’t follow it in one direction, though. They fell in the US and kept edging down in Korea, and in France some stations simply ran dry. It was the same oil. What differed was how long a change in oil prices takes to show up at the pump, and the rules each country sets.
Why did oil jump again this month?
Because the war involving Iran keeps disrupting the routes oil is shipped along.
Last week a wave of Iranian attacks on tankers pushed Brent to that high. October has been the worst month on record for attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, according to Washington Institute data cited by Reuters.
The trouble began months earlier. In May, at its worst, about 10.9 million barrels a day of Middle East crude had stopped flowing, according to the US Energy Information Administration. By September that was down to 4.8 million. Then attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which lets Saudi oil skip Hormuz, sent Brent to $131 in mid-September.
Iran has held talks with officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, but no deal to end the war is in sight. Higher energy prices are likely part of why two Fed officials voted for a rate hike this week.
How long until oil prices show up at the pump?
Usually a few weeks, and the change arrives bit by bit, not all at once.
In the US, about 50% of a change in crude prices shows up at the pump within two weeks, and about 80% within four. Rises pass through faster than falls. In Korea the lag is usually two to three weeks.
So when oil jumps in the news, check the date on it. A jump today may be what you pay next month.
What is happening to fuel prices where you live?
It depends a lot on the country, because taxes, price caps and subsidies sit between the oil price and what you pay.
| Country | What is happening now |
|---|---|
| United States | Regular gasoline about $4.23 a gallon on Oct 29, 2026, down from $4.41 on Oct 1 as stations switched to cheaper winter fuel. The federal diesel tax is deferred to the end of the year, and several states have cut their own fuel taxes |
| Japan | A subsidy holds petrol down; it reached a record 51 yen a litre in September. The ruling party proposes raising the 170-yen target price by about 5 yen a litre a month from December |
| France | 595 stations completely dry on Oct 18, 2026; diesel around €2.36 a litre |
| Germany | Energy tax cut by 14 euro cents a litre from Oct 1 until Dec 31, 2026 |
| India | Export tax on petrol raised from 0.5 to 2.5 rupees a litre, to keep more at home |
| Korea | Petrol about 1,857 won a litre after 22 weekly falls in a row; a cap of 1,784 won a litre limits what refiners charge stations |
Of these, I think a tax cut with a fixed end date, like Germany’s, is the better choice. A cut with no end date hides the price signal that nudges people to use less, and when it finally stops, prices jump all at once. Japan faces exactly that problem now as it shrinks its subsidy.
An export tax, like India’s on petrol, keeps more fuel at home. But every litre kept in one country is a litre its neighbours cannot buy. That’s why I see export curbs as a last resort, not a first one.
What does expensive oil really cost a household?
For most drivers, less at the pump than the headlines suggest, and more through everything else they buy.
If you spend 100 a month on fuel, in dollars, euros, yen or whatever you use, a 10% rise at the pump adds 10. Most budgets can absorb that.
The bigger costs come through diesel and heating oil. US diesel averaged $6.29 a gallon in September, against $4.35 for gasoline, and most goods travel to shops by truck. American homes that heat with oil are expected to spend about 21% more this winter.
Where do oil prices go from here?
The official US forecast expects them to ease, assuming convoys and bypass routes slowly let more Middle East oil out. It puts Brent at about $104.69 in the last quarter and about $83.74 next year.
Nobody can predict the direction with confidence, so two things are worth watching: attacks on tankers and Middle East supply, and whether Brent drops back below a hundred dollars. If a deal brings supply back, prices could fall faster than this forecast. If attacks keep cutting supply, prices above a hundred dollars could stick.
If your country has a fuel tax cut or a subsidy, check when it ends. Because pump prices trail oil by weeks, that date may matter more to your budget than this week’s oil price.
Will Brent oil fall below $100 by the end of 2026?
How each language voted
Resolves: Brent closing price on December 31, 2026 · Reader opinions, not investment advice.
Sources
- US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026
- US Energy Information Administration, how crude oil price changes pass through to gasoline
- Reuters via Investing.com, oil on Middle East attacks and diplomacy (October 27, 2026)
- AAA, US gas prices in October 2026
- KAB, Japan's ruling party proposes shrinking the petrol subsidy
9 more sources
- L'Automobiliste, fuel shortages in France (October 19, 2026)
- German Federal Government, tax cuts for diesel and petrol
- Avalara, US gas tax holidays and the federal diesel tax deferral in 2026
- Free Press Journal, India changes petrol and diesel export duties
- Kyeongbuk Maeil, Korea's pump prices and the 2-3 week lag
- Money Today, Korea's cap applies to refiners' supply prices
- MTN News, Korea keeps its fuel price cap unchanged
- Trading Economics, US energy inflation in September 2026
- Yahoo Finance, Brent crude futures